Lucent Methodology

Documentation for how Lucent measures its own catalyst-coverage and alerting performance. Each entry is server-rendered from a weekly snapshot; the methodology version sha is pinned in the page footer.

Hit Rate
Timely Capture Rate for unscheduled events (clinical readouts, SEC filings, approvals, offerings), plus a descriptive read-through activity stat and an internal unmatched-move-day count.
Strategy Primitive
Glossary of the Trigger × Sizing × Entry × Exit primitive — every event type, signal type, alert type, filing feature, and tunable parameter the Strategy Editor exposes, with operator-aimed explanations and deep-linkable anchors.
Composite Fair Value
Weighted geometric mean of odds over Kalshi + Polymarket + Lucent’s literature-priors internal model, with structured CHMP + FAERS adjustments. Powers the per-market composite probability served under /api/pm/fair-value.